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What a normal person can do in china when the economic crash coming?
Why the stock market is hitting over the 33000 mark even in a so called economic slowdown? . SENSEX Chart since July 1997. Source. Google Finance- Yahoo Finance Let us have a look at the above chart. After a fairly long consolidating phase from 1997 to 2003, markets started an up move. It went into an overdrive in late 2007 which culminated in a peak in January 2008 and then the crash happened. That crash was not specific to India. It was global in nature and lasted till October 2008. Markets picked up momentum and SENSEX touched a high of 30000 for the first time on March 04, 2015. This level was not held even for a day and market correction started exactly on the same day and lasted till February 2016. Markets once again took off from the Union Budget Day in 2016 and show no signs of looking back. The question is sent to me by Mr. Manoj Memana Jayakumar. The point raised is genuine. Market behavior is never easy to explain. But it is human nature to keep on trying to find explanations for things which are not simply understood. (a) Markets are about FUTURE. The present slowdown is discounted and there is HOPE that the policies of the government will result in improving the economy in near future. (b) Almost every stock market in the world is in an uptrend. We take our lead from the rest of the world. US markets are at an all time High. So are markets in UK, Japan, Hong Kong and many other countries. We are doing just what the rest of the world is doing. (c) Markets always find a reason for doing what t do whether going up or down. Same event can cause either move and you will have experts explaining it either way. I would not like to be in their shoes as t have to change their views every other day. Poor chaps got it all wrong about BREXIT and TRUMP. As per them it should have been doom and gloom. But nothing of the sort happened and we can see where we are today. (d) We, in India like to praise our governments for simply doing things which we should expect as a matter of right. There are enough noises crediting Modi government for the current move. Look at the chart carefully. In UPA II period also the stock market had moved up by 64% in 60 months but we never praised Manmohan Singh’s economic policies. Rather that was the time when one scandal after the other was emerging. The gain is 41% in 41 months of Modi government. Equal scores. Derive your own conclusion. It does not matter to the markets who is at the helm. Lack of stability is the main concern. Otherwise everything evens out. (e) As the bank interest rates have gone down people look for high yield investments. There is huge money coming to the market through SIP ( systematic Investment Plans) of Mutual Funds. This money invested in Equity Market is taking the markets still higher. How Long this is going to last? . I wish I knew. No one can predict the markets. Predicting a crash or correction is just not possible. Let us just be careful and be invested cautiously. I had earlier answered a similar question. That could also be useful. Pramod Kumar's answer to India's GDP growth is slowing down, but the stock market is rising. What is the reason for that? Is there any relation between the two? Thanks for reading. Images. Google Images
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