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Why does Dr. Patrick Michaels, director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute, claim the Russian climate model to be accurate while all other fail to reflect reality?
The INM-CM5 model does use GHG in its calculations. That is easy to figure out as it produces projections of increasing global temperatures in line with increasing CO2 concentration pathways. Here are the factors the model takes into account. Notice the blocks labelled as “atmospheric composition” and “outgoing long wave radiation”. There are two possible reasons the model obtains good agreement with observations. It may be using components that are superior to those used by other models. By accident.
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Or deliberately. In which case the model would be a very good one in this area. As most other models are using similar parts of each of the components. Or it may be the case that the model has a superior model component or more parts with a higher relative accuracy than the others. The INM-CM5 model is an excellent model in this area. For example the sea level models have been shown to be remarkably accurate in terms of predicting future sea level. To have to make use of the satellite tide gauge data is highly unlikely to have improved models accuracy. Another area where the INM-CM5 model appears to have done very well is predicting the total solar irradiation in a range of future scenarios. In these scenarios the solar radiation increases as CO2 has no effect. Thus, the predictions are more than accurate enough in most circumstances to.
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